Gaza ‘s Future: US-Led Talks
In the aftermath of the conflict in Gaza, US officials are actively engaging with the Palestinian Authority and regional allies to plan for the region’s future. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently met with a delegation from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey, and the Palestinian Authority, with a focus on discussing the post-Israeli offensive situation in Gaza.
The US stance on an immediate ceasefire was highlighted when it vetoed a UN resolution proposed by the United Arab Emirates, calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, unconditional release of hostages, and ensuring humanitarian access. The UK abstained from voting due to the resolution’s failure to condemn a Hamas attack on October 7.
Looking ahead, US officials envision a unified government led by a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority governing both Gaza and the West Bank after the conflict. While initially hesitant, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has shifted his position. However, uncertainties surround the immediate post-conflict scenario for Gaza.
State Department spokesperson Matt Miller indicated that there might be a transition period where Israeli forces remain in Gaza after combat operations end, but this cannot be a permanent arrangement. Despite the urgency for a resolution, the Arab delegation emphasized their reluctance to be involved in an international force for Gaza’s security post-war. They insist on discussions within the broader context of establishing a Palestinian state.
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi expressed frustration, stating that the international community, including the US, has failed to act meaningfully to stop the conflict. He emphasized the loss of credibility for those advocating peace and moderation in the region.
Privately, there is concern within the Biden administration about the reluctance of Arab allies to contribute to a post-war international peacekeeping force, despite condemning Israel’s actions. Some Arab nations explicitly stated that they would not deploy their forces in Gaza to avoid being seen as subjugating the Palestinians.
The Biden administration consistently supports a two-state solution. Secretary Blinken outlined terms for “durable peace and security” in Gaza, opposing Israeli re-occupation and territorial reduction. Vice President Kamala Harris, during her recent meetings in Dubai, emphasized three areas of focus for post-conflict planning: infrastructure reconstruction in Gaza, reinforcing Palestinian Authority security, and revitalizing PA governance. She reiterated the importance of a two-state solution.
While Blinken and Harris have engaged with Palestinian Authority leaders, the US insists that leadership choices are for the Palestinians to make. They stress the need for a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority to effectively govern Gaza and the West Bank after hostilities cease.
Despite reported disagreements between the US and Israel on the role of the Palestinian Authority, the administration believes that a strengthened PA, potentially with new leadership, could be a plausible solution. Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh suggested a role for Hamas in future Gaza governance, a proposal likely to face opposition from Israel, which aims to eliminate the group.
US officials reject a return to the pre-October 7 “status quo” and acknowledge the reluctance of many Arab partners to see Hamas maintain control in Gaza. The historical animosity between Hamas and Fatah, which controls the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, adds complexity to the prospects of a unified governance structure.
Efforts for Palestinian reconciliation have faltered in the past, with a 2017 agreement collapsing shortly after its signing. The longstanding rivalry between Hamas and Fatah, marked by violence and failed unity attempts, underscores the challenges in establishing a cohesive governance structure for both Gaza and the West Bank.
In conclusion, as the US navigates diplomatic discussions and plans for post-war governance in Gaza, challenges abound. Balancing regional dynamics, addressing the concerns of Arab allies, and navigating the complex internal Palestinian political landscape will be crucial in shaping a sustainable and peaceful future for the region.
